Factors That Affect Pricing
     
Forecasts suggest that natural gas prices will track higher than the historical average.
  • Lower production from new gas wells.
  • Natural gas is no longer in surplus. A bubble of oversupply depressed prices for 10 years. The gas market now sees the same shortages that have governed the oil market for 25 years.
  • The long term price trend is up and gas traders will need a good reason to reverse this trend.
  • GDP and industrial production is improving and this will increase energy consumption.
 
All Indicators point to more expensive Electricity
 
Coal generating plants to close by 2007  
  • The Ontario government is committed in abiding by the Kyoto Accord against harmful emissions.
  • Coal is the cheapest form of electricity.
  • Coal currently accounts for 30% of total generation during peak hours.
  • Coal will be replaced by more expensive alternatives, including natural gas.
               
Uncertainty of Nuclear plants
  • Nuclear facilities are costly to operate and maintain.
  • Nuclear plants in Ontario have been an unreliable source of electricity since 1997.
  • Cost to get nuclear facilities safely operational have been astronomical. These costs will eventually be passed on to consumers.
                 
Increasing economic activity
  • Demand for electricity in Ontario is burgeoning with increased economic activity.
  • At current generation levels, demand will outstrip supply by 3% annually.
  • Conservation may not be enough to offset increased demand.
 
Imported Electricity is more expensive  
  • At current generation levels, Ontario is dependent on scheduled electricity imports from Quebec and the United States.
  • With demand outpacing supply, Ontario's dependence on imported electricity will grow painfully acute.