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Factors That Affect Pricing |
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Forecasts suggest that natural gas prices will track higher than the historical average. |
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- Lower production from new gas wells.
- Natural gas is no longer in surplus. A bubble of oversupply depressed prices for 10 years. The gas market now sees the same shortages that have governed the oil market for 25 years.
- The long term price trend is up and gas traders will need a good reason to reverse this trend.
- GDP and industrial production is improving and this will increase energy consumption.
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All Indicators point to more expensive Electricity |
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| Coal generating plants to close by 2007 |
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- The Ontario government is committed in abiding by the Kyoto Accord against harmful emissions.
- Coal is the cheapest form of electricity.
- Coal currently accounts for 30% of total generation during peak hours.
- Coal will be replaced by more expensive alternatives, including natural gas.
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| Uncertainty of Nuclear plants |
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- Nuclear facilities are costly to operate and maintain.
- Nuclear plants in Ontario have been an unreliable source of electricity since 1997.
- Cost to get nuclear facilities safely operational have been astronomical. These costs will eventually be passed on to consumers.
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| Increasing economic activity |
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- Demand for electricity in Ontario is burgeoning with increased economic activity.
- At current generation levels, demand will outstrip supply by 3% annually.
- Conservation may not be enough to offset increased demand.
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| Imported Electricity is more expensive |
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- At current generation levels, Ontario is dependent on scheduled electricity imports from Quebec and the United States.
- With demand outpacing supply, Ontario's dependence on imported electricity will grow painfully acute.
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